In China läuft auch nicht längst alles rund.
Auch wenn wir aus China kaum Hiobsbotschaften hören, was wohl vor allem daran liegt, dass Nachrichten dort staatlich kontrolliert werden, wird China genauso durch die Wirtschafts"krise" beeinflusst.
Die Wachstumsphantasien waren eventuell auch etwas zu sportlich. Dies ganze Thema verdient eigentlich eine gründlichere Diskussion, speziell die Frage, wie viele Orders aus Indien, China und Mittelost eigentlich Luftbuchungen sind.
Die Zeilen unten sind von Leeham Aviation, genaugenommen Scott Hamilton.
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The decline and fall of China’s aviation sector
China used to be the stalwart that Airbus and Boeing could count on when commercial aviation elsewhere took a nose dive. China also was the stable market with great potential, attracting Embraer and Airbus to build assembly sites and prompting Bombardier to contract with China to be a major fuselage section supplier for its new CSeries aircraft, with the expectation that a major launch order would come from one of the leading airlines—believed to be China Southern.
China has also been identified as a potential funding source for Steven Udvar-Hazy to buy back ILFC from its ailing parent, AIG.
Not any more.
China’s Big Three airline companies, Air China, China Southern and China Eastern, have turned to the government for bail-outs. Eastern and Southern have parked 10% of their fleets and Eastern flirts with bankruptcy. The government said it will suspend ordering new airplanes, which almost certainly puts Bombardier’s plans for a launch order from China in the scupper.
Funding ILFC? Forget it. Although several aerospace analysts theorized that only sovereign funds, including China, could be financing sources in today’s capital market crisis, sources tell us that this was never in the cards.
The Chinese government not only is bailing out the airline sector, it has pumped at least $500bn into the Chinese economy, according to reports.
Cathay Pacific Airways announced that it plans to defer orders with Boeing for the 747-8F and the 777.
China is just another troubled economy now. This will put pressure on Boeing and Airbus throughout 2009.
Boeing, and to a lesser extent, Airbus, both liked to tout the diversity of customers and economies as evidence of the solid nature of the order backlogs. Both companies used as a basis for this heavy reliance on global GDP (Gross Domestic Products). But there is clear evidence the diverse GDP is weakening. This will likewise put pressure on Boeing and Airbus.